Ask any fashionista if clothes are an important part of our identity and they will probably talk about how vital style is to their success. To break it down a little further and step away from high fashion and instead focus on the man in the street, how important are his clothing choices? Was Mark Twain right in saying “the clothes make the man” and has this adage been taken too literally of late? Everything that we do has a cause and effect impact on the world, so in that aspect our clothes will to some degree have an effect on how we are treated by others, but in what way?A simple example can be found at a high-end Michelin-starred restaurant. Unless your face is immediately recognisable as being wealthy and successful, it will often be your clothes that the host or waiter makes their decisions on and, if you’re not wearing the right clothes to a restaurant or nightclub, then the chances are you won’t get in. Call it ‘power dressing’ or dressing to impress, but the fact is that a man’s clothes determine how society sees him, this is something that women probably got to grips with a lot earlier than most men too.We’ve all heard the expression ‘first impressions count’, and it is absolutely true; as the average stranger takes no more than 30 seconds to assess another stranger on first meeting them, and this impression can then take up to five years to erase. You can forget the other saying ‘you can’t judge a book by its cover’, as anyone in publishing will tell you that it’s the covers that make the books stand out on the shelf.Obviously Hollywood has taken this idea a little too far, with movies like Jackie Chan’s ‘The Tuxedo’, where a down-and-out cab driver’s life is turned around thanks to the discovery of a technologically advanced tuxedo, and obviously James Bond has been known to pick particular threads too. To find serious real-world examples, you don’t have to look far. Politics is full of power dressing, where subtle messages are portrayed in candidate’s clothing choice, like Gordon Brown’s persistent red tie, or George W Bush’s choice of slightly oversized suit jackets to larger his appearance. In the first Kennedy-Nixon presidential race, radio listeners favoured Nixon thanks to his authoritative voice, while TV watchers favoured Kennedy as he looked fresh-faced compared to Nixon’s tired and unconsidered choice of mens clothes.To really understand how clothes can make a man’s appearance though, you can think back to childhood fairytales like ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’ or try a simple test. Picture in your head the manager of a petrol station, and then picture the manager of a successful advertising agency. The two managers might be in charge of the same number of people and earn the same salary, but they will probably be dressed pretty differently.

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

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